The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB) has released its highly anticipated 2026 Market Outlook and Year in Review, offering a detailed look at current trends, consumer sentiment, and projections for the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) housing market. After several years of historic highs, the GTA market is shifting toward stability and balance, presenting both challenges and opportunities for buyers, sellers, and real estate professionals.
In this blog, we break down the key takeaways from TRREB’s report, explore what the data means for market participants, and provide insights into navigating 2026 with confidence.
A Market in Transition: Lessons from 2025
Before looking forward to 2026, it is important to understand the trends that shaped the GTA housing market in 2025. Last year marked a period of adjustment following the record highs of 2021 and 2022.
Some key highlights from 2025 include:
- Home sales declined compared to prior years, with approximately 62,433 transactions reported across the GTA. This represents an 11.2% decrease from 2024.
- Inventory levels increased, giving buyers more options and reducing the intense competition seen in previous peak years.
- Average selling prices softened, providing a more balanced market where buyers could negotiate without the pressure of bidding wars.
Overall, 2025 was a year of moderation, signaling a more stable and predictable market for both buyers and sellers. The trends from last year set the stage for the 2026 outlook, where balance and buyer choice are expected to continue shaping the market.
Sales Forecast for 2026
According to TRREB, the GTA is expected to see between 60,000 and 70,000 home sales in 2026, similar to the level seen in 2025. Most of this activity is likely to occur in the first half of the year, while the second half could see a rebound if consumer confidence strengthens and economic conditions improve.
TRREB notes that while interest rates have moderated from previous peaks, long-term mortgage commitments remain a barrier for some households. This cautious approach among buyers is reflected in the lower percentage of residents planning to purchase a home this year.
Price Outlook: Moderation and Stability
TRREB forecasts the average GTA selling price for 2026 to be between $1.00 million and $1.03 million.
Several factors are influencing this outlook:
- Elevated inventory across all segments, especially condominiums, gives buyers more leverage in negotiations.
- Moderation in demand from buyers who are cautious due to affordability challenges.
- Stability in economic conditions that may prevent the dramatic price swings seen in previous years.
Prices may trend slightly lower in the first half of the year before stabilizing later in 2026, creating opportunities for buyers to find value while giving sellers a more predictable environment to market their homes.
Consumer Sentiment and Buyer Intentions
TRREB incorporated Ipsos survey data in its outlook, revealing important insights into buyer sentiment:
- Only 22% of GTA residents intend to purchase a home in 2026, down from the previous year.
- Approximately 45% of these prospective buyers are first-time buyers, highlighting the importance of this segment in shaping market activity.
- Many households face an affordability gap, with the monthly cost of homeownership exceeding what they can reasonably pay.
This cautious buyer sentiment emphasizes the importance of strategic guidance from real estate professionals, who can help buyers identify opportunities and navigate the challenges of affordability.
Inventory, Rentals, and Market Dynamics
One of the most significant themes in the 2026 market outlook is elevated inventory levels.
- Buyers have more options and greater leverage, particularly in the condominium market.
- Rental demand remains strong, supported by immigration and the formation of secondary households, keeping the rental market competitive.
- Long-term supply challenges, such as planning delays and development costs, continue to impact overall housing availability.
These factors create a market where buyers have negotiating power and sellers need to be strategic in pricing and presentation to attract the right offers.
Early 2026 Market Data
The first month of 2026 provides a snapshot of market activity:
- 3,082 home sales were reported in January, a 19.3% decrease compared to January 2025.
- 10,774 new listings entered the market during the same period, slightly lower than the previous year.
- The MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) declined by approximately 8% year-over-year.
- The average selling price was roughly $973,289, down 6.5% from January 2025.
These figures confirm a market where buyers have leverage, prices have softened, and inventory levels are elevated, reflecting the trends highlighted in TRREB’s 2026 Outlook.
What This Means for Buyers
For homebuyers, 2026 presents both opportunities and challenges:
- Increased negotiating power due to elevated inventory, particularly for condominiums.
- Opportunities to find value, especially in the first half of the year before potential stabilization of prices.
- First-time buyers play a key role, and their decisions could influence market momentum later in the year.
Careful planning, realistic budgeting, and guidance from experienced REALTORS® will be essential for buyers looking to take advantage of current market conditions.
What This Means for Sellers
Sellers must approach the 2026 market strategically:
- Pricing your home correctly is crucial in a market where buyers have more options.
- Effective presentation and staging can help homes stand out among elevated inventory levels.
- Expect a more measured pace of sales, as the market is no longer characterized by competitive bidding wars.
With careful preparation and guidance from a knowledgeable real estate professional, sellers can still achieve favourable outcomes in 2026.
Insights for REALTORS®
Real estate professionals will play a critical role in guiding both buyers and sellers through the 2026 market:
- Data-informed guidance is essential for helping clients understand pricing, timing, and market trends.
- Segment-specific knowledge, such as the differences between condos and low-rise homes, will help tailor strategies for each client.
- Understanding consumer sentiment and affordability pressures will allow REALTORS® to provide actionable advice that aligns with clients’ financial realities.
By leveraging data from TRREB and local market expertise, realtors can ensure their clients make informed decisions and achieve success in a balanced market.
Key Takeaways
TRREB’s 2026 Market Outlook and Year in Review offers several important lessons for market participants:
- The GTA housing market is expected to remain stable and balanced in 2026.
- Sales are forecast between 60,000 and 70,000 transactions, similar to 2025.
- Average prices are expected between $1.00M and $1.03M, reflecting moderation and stability.
- Only 22% of GTA residents plan to purchase a home this year, with first-time buyers representing 45% of this group.
- Elevated inventory gives buyers leverage, particularly in the condo market.
- Affordability pressures persist, influencing both purchase decisions and rental demand.
Final Thoughts
The 2026 GTA housing market is not defined by dramatic highs or lows but by stability, balance, and strategic opportunities. Buyers can take advantage of increased inventory and softer prices, while sellers must approach the market with thoughtful pricing and staging strategies. REALTORS® will be essential in interpreting market data, guiding clients through affordability challenges, and helping both buyers and sellers achieve their goals.
By understanding the trends outlined in TRREB’s Market Outlook and Year in Review, market participants can navigate 2026 with confidence, clarity, and strategic insight.
